Hacksaw: Hoyer under the gun with Gonzalez-Sox trade potential

Bold.

That’s what the new owner of the Padres was in his first days on the job.

Bold.

That’s what the new general manager can be with his first deal on the job.

Jeff Moorad made his mark in San Diego in mid-summer, serving notice he was not afraid to make deals. He approved the mid-summer trade that shipped out Cy Young Award winning pitcher Jake Peavy to the White Sox. He then jettisoned longtime general manager Kevin Towers at the end of the season.

Jed Hoyer is now calling the shots as GM, and the first move he makes with his roster might be his most important.

The offseason officially moves into high gear this weekend with the opening of the free agent shopping season. It also marks the beginning of the “Hot Stove League,” where wheeling and dealing of big name players is commonplace.

And all eyes will be on Moorad and Hoyer to see if the Padres move their power-hitting first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to the Boston Red Sox. A mega-player deal like this would set the tone for what other clubs will do. If this domino falls, it then impacts the Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies and other big market teams.

These two teams have been trading partners before; they know each others’ organizations well and are now linked by past relationships. Towers helped grow the career of Boston GM Theo Epstein. Hoyer left the Red Sox tree to take the San Diego job. And they all owe their jobs to former Padres and current Red Sox CEO Larry Lucchino.

It sets up a unique situation in the next few weeks. The inside knowledge Epstein has of San Diego’s talent level gives him insight into the Padres needs. The insider information Hoyer has of every player in the Boston organization could serve him well, in efforts to package what could be a 4-for-1 or 5-for-1 transaction that would put Gonzalez at Fenway Park on opening day.

Unique too is the history of blockbuster trades. General managers often serve as snake-oil salesman, hyping talent they’d like to move. Opposing execs have to be careful they don’t acquire fake prospects when they ship out a valued commodity for a large number of players.

Epstein needs Gonzalez, who could spend the summer banging balls off or over the Green Monster in Boston. If he hit 40 homers this season spending half his time at spacious Petco Park, how many would he stroke going the opposite way at friendly Fenway?

Hoyer has spent seven years placing prospects at places like Pawtucket, RI; Portland, ME; and Lowell, MA in the Red Sox farm system. Who better to know truth-vs.-fiction of the package of players that might come to San Diego when it comes time to deal Gonzalez?

Baseball fans can quote the stats and accomplishments of young pitchers Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard. One, Buchholz, threw a no-hitter in his first year in the majors and pitched big games down the stretch last summer. The other, Bard, was clocked routinely at 100 mph coming out of the BoSox bullpen at the back end of the season.

But Hoyer knows the real set of numbers and the strengths of the lesser-known talents, who could be part of a potential trade.

Junichi Tazawa, the Japanese 22-year old pitching sensation, went from AA to Fenway in one season. Another young arm, Michael Bowden, had a 3.13 ERA at AAA. Former first-round pick Casey Kelly had a 3.09 mark in A-ball.

And there are bats hidden and scattered everywhere in the Red Sox system. Outfielder Ryan Kalish, fly chaser Josh Reddick and towering first baseman Lars Anderson all have big hit potential.

Further down the ladder, shortstop Yamaico Navarro and slugging outfielder Ryan Westmoreland show promise.

It becomes critical that if Hoyer is to deal this big bat bargaining chip, he needs to get big-time can’t-miss talent. Quality over quantity is the key.

Minnesota, facing a similar small-market issue like the Padres, dealt away pitching ace Johan Santana to the Mets in a huge deal two years ago. They have virtually nothing to show from it. Two the pitchers in that trade, Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber washed out. Bright young outfielder Carlos Gomez has now been traded, too.

Cleveland dealt Cliff Lee to the World Series bound Phillies. The key players in that trade broke down. Bright young minor league pitcher Jason Knapp tore his labrum in the Indians farm system right after the deal, and shortstop Jason Donald needed surgery too.

The small market A’s have dealt away established pitchers Rich Harden, Mark Mulder, Dan Haren, Tim Hudson and Joe Blanton. They received 20 young prospects in all those transactions. The Pirates moved eight veterans in two years for 18 young players. Check the standings to see if it worked out.

Before the Padres and Red Sox pull the trigger, the Moorad-Hoyer team should consider the dynamics of this type of trade. The Friars front office needs to ask itself some honest questions.

Do your dare deal the popular hometown hero in Gonzalez and risk setting fire to what is left of your fan support? Do you do the deal realizing the enormous value you got in the White Sox-Peavy trade in hopes you can duplicate lightning in a bottle? If you succeed here, you could wind up with eight talented young players for the two.

Is there a real need to move the slugger now considering how economical his contract is the next two years ($4.7-5.5 million)? Should you worry about your ability to sign him to an extension by the time deal runs out? Who knows, there might be a salary cap by 2012. You might be a really good young team by then. You might be drawing three million fans with Gonzalez and the young kids. Of course, you might also be in last place, with little depth and an unhappy first baseman if you don’t play your cards right now.

And then there is the payroll question. San Diego has $35 million in salary commitments right now. With approximately $11 million free money to spend this offseason, you might wind up with $16 million in your checking account if you trade the slugger for low-cost prospects. Can you rent quality veteran free agents to compliment all your young players and make yourself a good club?

The biggest question will be answered shortly. What is the value of Hoyer’s inside information? Will he ask too much and get shut out? Will he be at a disadvantage against more experienced Epstein, and strike out? Will the Padres brass hit a home run or get picked off? Will Jed Hoyer’s knowledge of everything Boston be a help or a hindrance?

The new GM could make the Padres a winner. The first move might be his most important.

Lee Hamilton hosts “Sportswatch” (3-7pm) on XX-1090 and National Baseball Talkshows on XM-175-Home Plate Channel. His SDNN columns have been honored by the San Diego Press Club.

Tags: Adrian Gonzalez, Jed Hoyer, Padres, Red Sox, SDNN, SWRNN, Theo Epstein

This entry was posted on Friday, November 20th, 2009 at 8:19 am and is filed under Padres, Sports, Sports Opinion . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.